OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was roughly $50 billion at the end of September. CNBC confirmed the number on October 8. Late last month, the figure making the rounds was $68 billion. The $18 billion gap took AI stocks down with it on Thursday.
Who lost money on Thursday
Nvidia fell 3%, Oracle nearly 6%, CoreWeave almost 8%. Add AMD down 4%, Broadcom down 4%, Intel down 5% and Super Micro Computer down nearly 5%. The Financial Times reported the $50 billion figure first.
The number comes from an investor presentation, in which OpenAI also cited 77% total run-rate growth in the third quarter and 107% run-rate growth in its enterprise business.
Why the bigger number was in circulation
This is the interesting part. According to CNBC’s source, the $68 billion included gross revenue from OpenAI’s partners. The purpose: a more direct comparison with Anthropic.
Anthropic told investors in August that its annualized run rate hit $65 billion at the end of July. Two numbers that work side by side, with one of them counted more generously than the other. Put $50 billion next to $65 billion and you get a different picture than the market coverage of the past few weeks.
Two IPOs, neither with a date
OpenAI has to justify an $852 billion valuation. It filed its prospectus confidentially in June, and executives point at 2027. Sam Altman said in September that “right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public,” partly because of the safety debate.
Anthropic hasn’t named a date but is meeting prospective investors and is reportedly seeking a $2 trillion valuation. Against that sits a Tuesday report from independent research firm New Constructs, which calls Anthropic’s offering the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026” and values the company at $150 billion. For context: Anthropic’s 2025 revenue was $4.6 billion against a $42 billion net loss, per Anthropic’s IPO prospectus.
The metric is the problem, not the number
Run rate isn’t an accounting figure. It takes a month and multiplies by twelve, and whoever quotes it decides what counts. Thursday showed what that does to a market: OpenAI’s business didn’t get worse, the definition got narrower, and the suppliers paid for it.
For anyone following both IPOs, that’s the practical lesson. Two run rates are only comparable if somebody says whether partner revenue is in there. For three weeks, with the $68 billion, nobody did.