Anthropic filed an amended prospectus with the SEC on Monday. The Form S-1/A carries third-quarter numbers for the first time; the half-year figures were already in the original filing, which I covered last week.
What the quarter looks like
Revenue of $17 billion in Q3, up 1,127% year over year, against a net loss of $23.29 billion. For the first nine months the filing reports $33.24 billion in revenue and a $104 billion net loss, most of it from revaluing convertible notes and derivatives rather than from operations.
The direction matters more than the size. Revenue grew 144% from Q1 to Q2 and 46% from Q2 to Q3. The $16.8 billion figure that reached investors in mid-October was a little low, but the slope behind it was read correctly. Anthropic puts it in the prospectus itself: “We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates, and we cannot assure you that it will continue to grow at all.”
The commitments are bigger than the headline number
$895.4 billion in purchase commitments and lease agreements, “substantially all” of it compute and infrastructure. A week ago the reporting said roughly $800 billion over a decade.
The breakdown explains the speed: about $320 billion of existing contractual obligations and $451 billion in leases that only start between 2026 and 2028. The Register adds the $150–175 billion in estimated further payments and lands north of a trillion. The deals with Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Broadcom total $437 billion and are non-cancellable, some payable whether or not a GPU is lit up. By Anthropic’s own count, only about $213 billion of the $895 billion can be avoided.
Roughly $70 billion falls due by September 2027, and about $447.5 billion by the end of 2030.
44% of revenue runs through hyperscaler marketplaces
One number that has gone largely unnoticed: cloud marketplaces accounted for about 44% of revenue in the first nine months. No single customer accounts for more than 10%. So the companies selling Anthropic its compute are also its largest distribution channel, and they are building competing models or reselling rivals at the same time. The filing lists that as a risk, across more than 90 pages of them.
The slope counts for more than the total
Revenue that multiplies twelvefold in a year can carry almost any cost line. Revenue growing 46% in a quarter while compute costs grow 77% in the same quarter cannot. That gap is why the prospectus hedges its own growth rates so carefully. Anthropic does not need to prove that it is big. It needs to prove that it grows faster than its obligations.