It’s happening: OpenAI has filed — or is about to file — confidential IPO paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advising, and the target is a public debut in September 2026. The expected valuation? North of one trillion dollars.
What Does ‘Confidential Filing’ Mean?
A confidential filing means OpenAI has submitted a draft prospectus to the SEC without making it public immediately. This gives the company time to work through regulatory feedback before the actual S-1 becomes visible to everyone. The filing must go public at least 15 days before the roadshow — where OpenAI pitches institutional investors.
The Big Unknown: How Much Cash Is OpenAI Burning?
The most anticipated revelation in the S-1: just how much money OpenAI is burning. Despite an estimated $6 billion in quarterly revenue, the company remains deeply unprofitable. Training costs, inference infrastructure, data centers, the most expensive AI talent on the planet — it all adds up to astronomical figures.
This is a sentiment test for the entire AI industry. If public markets are willing to bankroll OpenAI’s cash bonfire, it signals tolerance for the massive costs of the AI race. If investors balk, it gets harder for Anthropic and everyone else too.
The AI IPO Race
OpenAI isn’t alone in this. SpaceX has also filed an IPO prospectus, and Anthropic is reportedly working on its own public listing later this year. On prediction market Kalshi, traders give OpenAI an 83% chance of going public before Anthropic.
Microsoft holds roughly 27% of OpenAI, which at a trillion-dollar valuation would be worth approximately $270 billion. Sam Altman’s personal compensation is also expected to be detailed in the filing — a question that has fueled speculation for years.
My Take
An OpenAI IPO would be a turning point for the AI industry. For the first time, a frontier AI company would have to fully disclose its financials — including whether the business model is viable long-term. For those of us watching this space, the S-1 prospectus will be a treasure chest: finally real numbers instead of estimates.
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